Thursday, February 19, 2015

MIIF - winding up the fund doesn't look as good as it seems - (SELL)





I was intrigue by the winding up of MIIF. This fund was a good dividend play and special situation. I thought it was worth a look given its 9.18% dividend yield with possibility of special payout.

It turned out to be a wasted hit. Not wasted valuation as I saved my capital at risk due to the background checks. It turned out that its 81.8% stake valuation with the minus of success fee would only be worth a punt at valuations of less than 0.075 or 0.066 (post-div).

The asset apparently though may be worth more to the person who buys it - current earnings of about 12m.

How was this model build?
I used the assumption that there was a winding up and three case scenarios
(20% probability) Worst case scenario (reaching the success fee) - sale at 77.6m
(50% probability) Base case - sale at NAV 120.2m
(30% probability) Bullish case - China Merchant Pacific was used as a comparable sales valuation
(adjusting upwards the value for dividend yield and downwards for p/b) - I got a value of 137.038m.

Finally - at 81.8% stake in HNE. I computed the cash payout to investors.

Totally not worth it. I would only buy things with a certainty of some sort of 15% return. At that measure, only at a price of 0.081 or 0.072 (post-div). That is a 17% downside from here.

If you are interested in the model, you may leave your email in the comment and I will send it to you.

3 Targets - nothing more nothing less (Y-S-C)

Hi All,

I was identifying some interesting targets. Nothing really exciting in such a bullish market with a increasingly dangerous backdrop...here are my targets. I am rather keen on Yoma and CWT. I probably be a buyer of Yoma at around 0.43-0.46 and CWT from 1.45 - 1.55. Sembcorp would be around 3.8- 4.0 window.

Yoma Strategic Holdings (0.48)
Industry type: Conglomerate
A. Real estate
B. Construction
C. Agriculture
D. Logistics
E. Infrastructure
F. Luxury travel and Tourism
G. Automobiles
H. Strategic Investments - Retail, FMCG, Telecoms, Airport, Elevator Svcs, Steel Mesh Products manufacturing
Graham: 0.366
SOTP:
PE: 25.66
NAV: 0.3769
EPS: 0.0158

Sembcorp Industries (4.24)
Industry type - Conglomerate -
A. Utilities ( Energy, Water, Solid waste management)
B. Marine
C. Urban development
Graham: 5.19
SOTP: 4.25
P.E: 9.73
NAV: 3.02
EPS: 0.413 (trailing average)

CWT Ltd (1.57)
Industry type - Logistics manager
- 4 Streams of revenue
1. Logistics
2. Commodity marketing
3. Engineering services
4. Financial Services
Graham : 2.32
SOTP:
P/E: 8.95
NAV: 1.275
EPS: 0.1873