Saturday, June 17, 2017

2017 looking like a decent year to most investors (or is it?)

2017 has look a lot brighter for me personally. It feels like sunshine is thawing a long cold winter.

On the investment front, some of my recent picks this year have done well....even the bad picks of last year are looking brighter.

Top 3 picks:
Venture Corp  + 23.64%
Capitaland      + 15.41%
CWT Ltd         + 13.37%

As a portfolio manager, nobody knows our needs better than us. If we don't take responsibility and exercise discipline, we could find ourselves in a lot more trouble when the tough times hit. This is when I often think about the past and know that given the game is so hard - it is best to avoid the losers. 

After all, even Warren Buffett's two rules underline the fundamental that as long as you don't lose money - it is a great sunny day. You live to fight on.

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As a relatively young working adult, I believe it helps to reflect on things often and while being young means time is on your side - It always pays to be humble, and continue to learn. The most pertinent warning comes from this 2007 TNP article I chanced upon recently.

BURNT BY STOCKS - I LOST $700,000 IN 3 MONTHS
Student on winning stock market streak, then he loses dad's life savings

Lesson points:

1. Money doesn't come "easy"
If you think money is easy to be made, you may be sorely wrong - people may be right for the wrong reasons and wrong for the right reasons. The game is never in your control - the day you think you are 'master of the universe'  - that's a very dangerous day

2. Never borrow money to invest
Markets can stay irrational longer than you stay liquid. If you do not have the holding power, you cannot ride out a storm.

3. It is an emotional game
Mastering control over fear and greed is necessary to do well. Otherwise just stick to regular investment in index funds.

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With this lessons in mind, I am cognizant that some rethinking and rationalizing of my portfolio is necessary.

My strategy
1. Reassess the worse case scenario (maximum downside that any asset could have) 
    + This is defined as the point where you will bet the house (but someone else's blood is on the 
        street)

2. Managing the cash/bond portion of the portfolio (having a larger portion in this segment will reduce volatility) 
    + The goal is target quarterly re-balancing to 60-20-20 (Equity-Bond-Cash)

3. Take some profits off the table to manage risk (Rome wasn't build in a day and neither is personal wealth)
    + Bird in hand is worth two in a bush. My father often told me profit is (paper profit - unrealized)   
       but losses are actual losses as it may never 'come back'.

All the best.
TFG