Sunday, October 18, 2015

Investing - Criteria and Macrotrends

What should an investor look out for?
Building your criteria .
Namely, I have listed a short 5 point criteria that people should follow with regards to investing, this would give them a safe metric to follow for the less financially savvy
  1.  > 4.0% dividend yield (p.a.)
  2.  > 500m market cap (USD)
  3.  > 5 years of listed status (for forecasting and book building)
  4. < 40% gearing (D/A)
  5. EV/EBITDA < Industry Average by 1 standard deviation
Macro trends are your best bet to outperforming the market.
Just as I spotted the strong ability of Keppel T&T's Data Centre (30% net margins) and its really unique ride on the digital age. I believe that macrotrends are still the best play in the long run. What is important is whether you recognize this trend early, build up a sizable position, and that it would be realized in the future. The follows are some macrotrends that I think would be fairly alright. Do take note that a substantial risk may be involved for some of them especially frontier investments, commodity types and the turnaround stories.

Singapore/ Australia Markets
a.  Short Term Macro trend – Interest Rate rise
     Beneficiaries – DBS / OCBC / UOB
b.  Frontier market story – Myanmar
     Beneficiaries – Yoma
c.  Urbanization
     Beneficiaries – Keppel Corp / City Development / Capitaland / Sembcorp Industries
d.  Commodities recovery
     Beneficiaries – Wilmar International / BHP Biliton Ltd
e.  REIT plays
     Beneficiaries – Capitacommercial Trust / Starhill / Mapletree GCC / Keppel DC reit
f.  Turnaround stories (with high risk)
     Beneficiaries – Noble Group / Vard Ltd / Sembcorp Marine / Boustead Ltd / Super Group
g.  Steady Companies
     Beneficiaries – CWT Ltd / United Engineers

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