After reading 3/4 through of Morgan housel’s new book. It tells of many things that have not changed since the start of time. In a similar vein, we observe it all today in financial markets.
Boom and bust of crypto
- Crypto being the poster boy, saw multiple boom and busts. With euphoria creeping in as btc ETFs get approved, one truly wonders what an interesting experiment it turns out to be.
- With the halving event in Apr 2024. Would it continue to climb? Or has market priced in everything.
The only thing more certain than knowing something is not knowing what will happen.
After all, with market timing - you need to guess what will happen, when it will happen and how the markets will react. Good luck - Terry Smith.
How little we know
- Anyone who bashes any subject without at least trying to understand runs the risk of “missing out”.
- In the next vein, can you afford to “miss out”?
- Knowledge gathering is critical, often we do not fully understand anything entirely. So there lies the limits of our competency.
- Then we put it in the Yes, No or Too hard buckets.
Certainty
- Nobody can time the market. But in certain aspects, you get a sense of the market top and bottoms through
1. Experience and valuations
2. Observation of credit and lending cycles
3. Sentiments (Bullish or bearish)
And then you have to be practical to understand if the model and framework works when you bring it from one place to another.
So the craziest example would be a bet on China right now.
1. Valuations at a 4 year low (lower than Covid)
2. Revenue and earnings largely flat, ready to pick up (improving earnings outlook)
3. Lenders are easing on liquidity, lending to property companies tepidly but surely.
4. Sentiments are bad (FDI outflows, locals not buying)
So certainly no case right now. But recovery will come fast and swift, so a certain small allocation would work out. 5-10% is prudent.
Sure thing or risky thing
Would you rather earn
3% from FD
3.8% from T bills
4.5% from corporate bonds
5 - 15% from REITs
10 - 20% from growth stocks
100% from crypto
The risk spectrum and probabilities of returns differ for each of the above from a sure thing (FD & t bills) to a gamble (crypto). Prudent investors know that each have to find their own sleep number, this adjust with family circumstances, age, careers, networth etc.
And that’s it. Some things never change.
